CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF)
Model Evaluation — last 100 days for CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF)
MAPE: 2.06%
MAE: 1.78
Direction hit: 83.6%
P&L in Period:
--
| Trade Date |
Prediction For |
Actual |
Pred |
Δ actual |
Strategy Action |
Shares Held |
Strategy P&L (Day) |
Cum. P&L (Period) |
| 2025-07-21 |
2025-07-28 |
$93.50
|
$92.78 |
0.87
|
SCALE-IN
|
16.29 |
$0.00
|
$0.00
|
| 2025-07-22 |
2025-07-29 |
$93.30
|
$93.62 |
2.31
|
SCALE-IN
|
21.74 |
$0.00
|
$0.00
|
| 2025-07-23 |
2025-07-30 |
$92.53
|
$90.62 |
0.81
|
SELL
|
0.00 |
$37.45
|
$37.46
|
| 2025-07-24 |
2025-07-31 |
$94.91
|
$95.94 |
1.20
|
INITIAL BUY
|
10.70 |
$0.00
|
$37.46
|
| 2025-07-25 |
2025-08-01 |
$92.64
|
$91.58 |
-0.86
|
SELL
|
0.00 |
$-2.14
|
$35.32
|
| 2025-07-28 |
2025-08-04 |
$92.83
|
$90.98 |
-0.47
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$35.32
|
| 2025-07-29 |
2025-08-05 |
$91.56
|
$93.35 |
-0.97
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$35.32
|
| 2025-07-30 |
2025-08-06 |
$93.65
|
$94.70 |
-1.26
|
INITIAL BUY
|
10.79 |
$0.00
|
$35.32
|
| 2025-07-31 |
2025-08-07 |
$92.72
|
$88.87 |
0.08
|
SELL
|
0.00 |
$2.05
|
$37.37
|
| 2025-08-01 |
2025-08-08 |
$89.90
|
$91.17 |
-2.93
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$37.37
|
| 2025-08-04 |
2025-08-11 |
$82.89
|
$91.83 |
-8.67
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$37.37
|
| 2025-08-05 |
2025-08-12 |
$80.91
|
$88.53 |
-12.74
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$37.37
|
| 2025-08-06 |
2025-08-13 |
$82.63
|
$84.34 |
-10.09
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$37.37
|
| 2025-08-07 |
2025-08-14 |
$82.90
|
$77.78 |
-7.00
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$37.37
|
| 2025-08-08 |
2025-08-15 |
$86.42
|
$84.43 |
3.53
|
INITIAL BUY
|
12.36 |
$0.00
|
$37.37
|
| 2025-08-11 |
2025-08-18 |
$85.27
|
$87.59 |
4.36
|
SCALE-IN
|
18.41 |
$0.00
|
$37.37
|
| 2025-08-12 |
2025-08-19 |
$85.90
|
$86.60 |
3.27
|
SCALE-IN
|
24.44 |
$0.00
|
$37.37
|
| 2025-08-13 |
2025-08-20 |
$84.45
|
$83.19 |
1.55
|
SELL
|
0.00 |
$112.26
|
$149.63
|
| 2025-08-14 |
2025-08-21 |
$84.00
|
$82.82 |
-2.42
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$149.63
|
| 2025-08-15 |
2025-08-22 |
$85.43
|
$84.05 |
0.16
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$149.63
|
| 2025-08-18 |
2025-08-25 |
$86.36
|
$85.95 |
0.46
|
INITIAL BUY
|
11.84 |
$0.00
|
$149.63
|
| 2025-08-19 |
2025-08-26 |
$86.51
|
$85.91 |
2.06
|
SCALE-IN
|
17.79 |
$0.00
|
$149.63
|
| 2025-08-20 |
2025-08-27 |
$86.17
|
$85.98 |
2.17
|
SCALE-IN
|
23.65 |
$0.00
|
$149.63
|
| 2025-08-21 |
2025-08-28 |
$86.63
|
$82.83 |
1.20
|
SELL
|
0.00 |
$42.11
|
$191.74
|
| 2025-08-22 |
2025-08-29 |
$86.35
|
$85.22 |
-0.01
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$191.74
|
| 2025-08-25 |
2025-09-01 |
$87.31
|
$87.77 |
0.80
|
INITIAL BUY
|
11.61 |
$0.00
|
$191.74
|
| 2025-08-26 |
2025-09-02 |
$86.63
|
$84.41 |
0.46
|
SELL
|
0.00 |
$5.34
|
$197.08
|
| 2025-08-27 |
2025-09-03 |
$87.43
|
$89.31 |
0.80
|
INITIAL BUY
|
11.58 |
$0.00
|
$197.08
|
| 2025-08-28 |
2025-09-04 |
$84.77
|
$86.26 |
-1.58
|
SELL
|
0.00 |
$11.12
|
$208.20
|
| 2025-08-29 |
2025-09-05 |
$84.18
|
$85.00 |
-3.13
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$208.20
|
| 2025-09-02 |
2025-09-09 |
$84.48
|
$84.72 |
-2.15
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$208.20
|
| 2025-09-03 |
2025-09-10 |
$84.50
|
$81.77 |
-2.93
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$208.20
|
| 2025-09-04 |
2025-09-11 |
$84.66
|
$87.04 |
-0.11
|
INITIAL BUY
|
11.88 |
$0.00
|
$208.20
|
| 2025-09-05 |
2025-09-12 |
$86.90
|
$85.58 |
2.72
|
SCALE-IN
|
17.80 |
$0.00
|
$208.20
|
| 2025-09-08 |
2025-09-15 |
$86.13
|
$86.35 |
1.65
|
SCALE-IN
|
23.72 |
$0.00
|
$208.20
|
| 2025-09-09 |
2025-09-16 |
$85.63
|
$85.66 |
1.13
|
SCALE-IN
|
29.62 |
$0.00
|
$208.20
|
| 2025-09-10 |
2025-09-17 |
$85.35
|
$83.65 |
0.69
|
SELL
|
0.00 |
$74.07
|
$282.26
|
| 2025-09-11 |
2025-09-18 |
$84.96
|
$84.54 |
-1.94
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$282.26
|
| 2025-09-12 |
2025-09-19 |
$84.19
|
$85.07 |
-1.94
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$282.26
|
| 2025-09-15 |
2025-09-22 |
$84.10
|
$84.68 |
-1.53
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$282.26
|
| 2025-09-16 |
2025-09-23 |
$85.09
|
$83.27 |
-0.26
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$282.26
|
| 2025-09-17 |
2025-09-24 |
$85.64
|
$87.93 |
0.68
|
INITIAL BUY
|
11.88 |
$0.00
|
$282.26
|
| 2025-09-18 |
2025-09-25 |
$87.14
|
$87.69 |
2.95
|
SCALE-IN
|
17.82 |
$0.00
|
$282.26
|
| 2025-09-19 |
2025-09-26 |
$91.65
|
$88.11 |
7.55
|
SCALE-IN
|
23.70 |
$0.00
|
$282.26
|
| 2025-09-22 |
2025-09-29 |
$89.71
|
$87.83 |
4.62
|
SCALE-IN
|
29.54 |
$0.00
|
$282.26
|
| 2025-09-23 |
2025-09-30 |
$92.13
|
$91.66 |
6.49
|
SCALE-IN
|
35.28 |
$0.00
|
$282.26
|
| 2025-09-24 |
2025-10-01 |
$90.51
|
$87.60 |
3.37
|
SELL
|
0.00 |
$233.01
|
$515.27
|
| 2025-09-25 |
2025-10-02 |
$89.70
|
$86.56 |
-1.95
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$515.27
|
| 2025-09-26 |
2025-10-03 |
$86.43
|
$91.98 |
-3.28
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$515.27
|
| 2025-09-29 |
2025-10-06 |
$89.84
|
$88.95 |
-2.29
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$515.27
|
| 2025-09-30 |
2025-10-07 |
$90.09
|
$88.69 |
-0.42
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$515.27
|
| 2025-10-01 |
2025-10-08 |
$92.06
|
$88.87 |
2.36
|
INITIAL BUY
|
11.57 |
$0.00
|
$515.27
|
| 2025-10-02 |
2025-10-09 |
$91.97
|
$92.44 |
5.54
|
SCALE-IN
|
17.14 |
$0.00
|
$515.27
|
| 2025-10-03 |
2025-10-10 |
$90.69
|
$92.66 |
0.85
|
SCALE-IN
|
22.69 |
$0.00
|
$515.27
|
| 2025-10-06 |
2025-10-13 |
$88.61
|
$88.84 |
-1.48
|
SELL
|
0.00 |
$88.43
|
$603.70
|
| 2025-10-07 |
2025-10-14 |
$87.34
|
$90.37 |
-4.72
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$603.70
|
| 2025-10-08 |
2025-10-15 |
$88.21
|
$88.61 |
-3.76
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$603.70
|
| 2025-10-09 |
2025-10-16 |
$86.73
|
$86.31 |
-3.96
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$603.70
|
| 2025-10-10 |
2025-10-17 |
$85.44
|
$85.02 |
-3.17
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$603.70
|
| 2025-10-13 |
2025-10-20 |
$83.02
|
$86.30 |
-4.32
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$603.70
|
| 2025-10-14 |
2025-10-21 |
$83.51
|
$84.88 |
-4.70
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$603.70
|
| 2025-10-15 |
2025-10-22 |
$83.93
|
$83.31 |
-2.80
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$603.70
|
| 2025-10-16 |
2025-10-23 |
$83.29
|
$81.51 |
-2.15
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$603.70
|
| 2025-10-22 |
2025-10-23 |
$86.93
|
$86.29 |
--
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$-2482.23
|
| 2025-10-23 |
2025-10-26 |
--
|
$87.92 |
--
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
--
|
| 2025-10-24 |
2025-10-27 |
$86.39
|
$87.63 |
--
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
--
|
| 2025-10-27 |
2025-10-30 |
--
|
$87.04 |
--
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
--
|
| 2025-10-25 |
2025-10-28 |
--
|
$86.98 |
--
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
--
|
--
|
| 2025-10-26 |
2025-10-29 |
--
|
$87.05 |
--
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
--
|
--
|
| 2025-10-28 |
2025-10-31 |
--
|
$90.20 |
--
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
--
|
--
|
| 2025-10-29 |
2025-11-01 |
--
|
$91.30 |
--
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
--
|
--
|
| 2025-10-30 |
2025-11-02 |
--
|
$91.18 |
--
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
--
|
--
|
| 2025-10-31 |
2025-11-03 |
--
|
$92.70 |
--
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
--
|
--
|
| 2025-11-01 |
2025-11-04 |
--
|
$94.07 |
--
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
--
|
--
|
| 2025-11-02 |
2025-11-05 |
--
|
$95.93 |
--
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
--
|
--
|
| 2025-11-03 |
2025-11-06 |
--
|
$98.35 |
--
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
--
|
--
|