Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA)
Model Evaluation — last 100 days for Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA)
MAPE: 1.30%
MAE: 6.84
Direction hit: 88.1%
P&L in Period:
--
| Trade Date |
Prediction For |
Actual |
Pred |
Δ actual |
Strategy Action |
Shares Held |
Strategy P&L (Day) |
Cum. P&L (Period) |
| 2025-07-21 |
2025-07-28 |
$513.55
|
$508.17 |
20.25
|
SCALE-IN
|
8.26 |
$0.00
|
$0.00
|
| 2025-07-22 |
2025-07-29 |
$514.95
|
$512.44 |
17.54
|
SCALE-IN
|
9.26 |
$0.00
|
$0.00
|
| 2025-07-23 |
2025-07-30 |
$519.27
|
$518.91 |
16.53
|
SCALE-IN
|
10.24 |
$0.00
|
$0.00
|
| 2025-07-24 |
2025-07-31 |
$513.63
|
$505.01 |
5.53
|
SELL
|
0.00 |
$260.44
|
$260.44
|
| 2025-07-25 |
2025-08-01 |
$517.43
|
$510.18 |
3.88
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$260.44
|
| 2025-07-28 |
2025-08-04 |
$515.01
|
$515.93 |
0.06
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$260.44
|
| 2025-07-29 |
2025-08-05 |
$507.73
|
$513.70 |
-11.54
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$260.44
|
| 2025-07-30 |
2025-08-06 |
$514.99
|
$515.78 |
1.36
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$260.44
|
| 2025-07-31 |
2025-08-07 |
$510.17
|
$511.36 |
-7.26
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$260.44
|
| 2025-08-01 |
2025-08-08 |
$516.19
|
$520.18 |
1.18
|
INITIAL BUY
|
1.97 |
$0.00
|
$260.44
|
| 2025-08-04 |
2025-08-11 |
$506.17
|
$510.29 |
-1.56
|
SELL
|
0.00 |
$14.30
|
$274.74
|
| 2025-08-05 |
2025-08-12 |
$498.21
|
$503.60 |
-16.78
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$274.74
|
| 2025-08-06 |
2025-08-13 |
$498.70
|
$510.20 |
-11.47
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$274.74
|
| 2025-08-07 |
2025-08-14 |
$516.02
|
$514.53 |
-0.17
|
INITIAL BUY
|
1.98 |
$0.00
|
$274.74
|
| 2025-08-08 |
2025-08-15 |
$532.71
|
$514.46 |
26.54
|
SCALE-IN
|
2.98 |
$0.00
|
$274.74
|
| 2025-08-11 |
2025-08-18 |
$526.18
|
$519.87 |
27.97
|
SCALE-IN
|
3.98 |
$0.00
|
$274.74
|
| 2025-08-12 |
2025-08-19 |
$521.00
|
$530.10 |
22.30
|
SCALE-IN
|
4.95 |
$0.00
|
$274.74
|
| 2025-08-13 |
2025-08-20 |
$516.87
|
$519.70 |
0.85
|
SELL
|
0.00 |
$137.33
|
$412.07
|
| 2025-08-14 |
2025-08-21 |
$516.55
|
$508.52 |
-16.16
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$412.07
|
| 2025-08-15 |
2025-08-22 |
$516.69
|
$512.00 |
-9.49
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$412.07
|
| 2025-08-18 |
2025-08-25 |
$520.18
|
$533.53 |
-0.82
|
INITIAL BUY
|
1.93 |
$0.00
|
$412.07
|
| 2025-08-19 |
2025-08-26 |
$529.50
|
$525.01 |
12.63
|
SCALE-IN
|
2.90 |
$0.00
|
$412.07
|
| 2025-08-20 |
2025-08-27 |
$524.37
|
$524.20 |
7.82
|
SCALE-IN
|
3.87 |
$0.00
|
$412.07
|
| 2025-08-21 |
2025-08-28 |
$526.06
|
$529.50 |
9.37
|
SCALE-IN
|
4.83 |
$0.00
|
$412.07
|
| 2025-08-22 |
2025-08-29 |
$533.81
|
$535.32 |
13.63
|
SCALE-IN
|
5.78 |
$0.00
|
$412.07
|
| 2025-08-25 |
2025-09-01 |
$530.63
|
$537.84 |
1.13
|
SCALE-IN
|
6.73 |
$0.00
|
$412.07
|
| 2025-08-26 |
2025-09-02 |
$492.73
|
$478.75 |
-31.64
|
SELL
|
0.00 |
$40.07
|
$452.13
|
| 2025-08-27 |
2025-09-03 |
$532.52
|
$493.07 |
6.46
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$452.13
|
| 2025-08-28 |
2025-09-04 |
$531.07
|
$512.60 |
-2.74
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$452.13
|
| 2025-08-29 |
2025-09-05 |
$529.50
|
$517.73 |
-1.13
|
INITIAL BUY
|
2.03 |
$0.00
|
$452.13
|
| 2025-09-02 |
2025-09-09 |
$514.86
|
$523.94 |
22.13
|
SELL
|
0.00 |
$80.75
|
$532.89
|
| 2025-09-03 |
2025-09-10 |
$519.81
|
$515.98 |
-12.71
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$532.89
|
| 2025-09-04 |
2025-09-11 |
$513.85
|
$511.95 |
-17.22
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$532.89
|
| 2025-09-05 |
2025-09-12 |
$515.47
|
$508.02 |
-14.03
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$532.89
|
| 2025-09-08 |
2025-09-15 |
$521.89
|
$506.66 |
7.03
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$532.89
|
| 2025-09-09 |
2025-09-16 |
$514.62
|
$507.39 |
-5.19
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$532.89
|
| 2025-09-10 |
2025-09-17 |
$526.08
|
$541.47 |
12.23
|
INITIAL BUY
|
1.94 |
$0.00
|
$532.89
|
| 2025-09-11 |
2025-09-18 |
$525.21
|
$530.01 |
9.74
|
SCALE-IN
|
2.90 |
$0.00
|
$532.89
|
| 2025-09-12 |
2025-09-19 |
$528.80
|
$525.83 |
6.91
|
SCALE-IN
|
3.87 |
$0.00
|
$532.89
|
| 2025-09-15 |
2025-09-22 |
$534.81
|
$533.25 |
20.19
|
SCALE-IN
|
4.82 |
$0.00
|
$532.89
|
| 2025-09-16 |
2025-09-23 |
$521.47
|
$511.58 |
-4.61
|
SELL
|
0.00 |
$31.54
|
$564.43
|
| 2025-09-17 |
2025-09-24 |
$518.16
|
$521.88 |
-7.05
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$564.43
|
| 2025-09-18 |
2025-09-25 |
$524.60
|
$525.47 |
-4.20
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$564.43
|
| 2025-09-19 |
2025-09-26 |
$535.61
|
$538.16 |
0.80
|
INITIAL BUY
|
1.92 |
$0.00
|
$564.43
|
| 2025-09-22 |
2025-09-29 |
$539.48
|
$534.21 |
18.01
|
SCALE-IN
|
2.88 |
$0.00
|
$564.43
|
| 2025-09-23 |
2025-09-30 |
$552.00
|
$536.46 |
33.84
|
SCALE-IN
|
3.84 |
$0.00
|
$564.43
|
| 2025-09-24 |
2025-10-01 |
$553.71
|
$547.66 |
29.11
|
SCALE-IN
|
4.77 |
$0.00
|
$564.43
|
| 2025-09-25 |
2025-10-02 |
$546.75
|
$555.54 |
11.14
|
SCALE-IN
|
5.70 |
$0.00
|
$564.43
|
| 2025-09-26 |
2025-10-03 |
$556.04
|
$561.87 |
16.56
|
SCALE-IN
|
6.60 |
$0.00
|
$564.43
|
| 2025-09-29 |
2025-10-06 |
$557.82
|
$570.74 |
5.82
|
SCALE-IN
|
7.50 |
$0.00
|
$564.43
|
| 2025-09-30 |
2025-10-07 |
$556.45
|
$560.87 |
2.74
|
SCALE-IN
|
8.42 |
$0.00
|
$564.43
|
| 2025-10-01 |
2025-10-08 |
$566.91
|
$566.68 |
20.16
|
SCALE-IN
|
9.32 |
$0.00
|
$564.43
|
| 2025-10-02 |
2025-10-09 |
$556.77
|
$538.62 |
0.73
|
SELL
|
0.00 |
$198.08
|
$762.50
|
| 2025-10-03 |
2025-10-10 |
$565.81
|
$569.54 |
7.99
|
INITIAL BUY
|
1.80 |
$0.00
|
$762.50
|
| 2025-10-06 |
2025-10-13 |
$561.15
|
$564.43 |
4.70
|
SELL
|
0.00 |
$18.80
|
$781.30
|
| 2025-10-07 |
2025-10-14 |
$549.28
|
$548.72 |
-17.63
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$781.30
|
| 2025-10-08 |
2025-10-15 |
$542.93
|
$555.76 |
-13.84
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$781.30
|
| 2025-10-09 |
2025-10-16 |
$541.01
|
$542.44 |
-24.80
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$781.30
|
| 2025-10-10 |
2025-10-17 |
$538.49
|
$542.51 |
-22.66
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$781.30
|
| 2025-10-13 |
2025-10-20 |
$537.29
|
$536.12 |
-11.99
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$781.30
|
| 2025-10-14 |
2025-10-21 |
$533.51
|
$528.75 |
-9.42
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$781.30
|
| 2025-10-15 |
2025-10-22 |
$523.72
|
$527.79 |
-17.29
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$781.30
|
| 2025-10-16 |
2025-10-23 |
$525.92
|
$516.91 |
-12.57
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$781.30
|
| 2025-10-22 |
2025-10-23 |
$524.48
|
$522.84 |
--
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$-2094.26
|
| 2025-10-23 |
2025-10-26 |
--
|
$488.49 |
--
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
--
|
| 2025-10-24 |
2025-10-27 |
$522.82
|
$515.23 |
--
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
--
|
| 2025-10-27 |
2025-10-30 |
--
|
$507.83 |
--
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
--
|
| 2025-10-25 |
2025-10-28 |
--
|
$509.91 |
--
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
--
|
--
|
| 2025-10-26 |
2025-10-29 |
--
|
$502.06 |
--
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
--
|
--
|
| 2025-10-28 |
2025-10-31 |
--
|
$492.02 |
--
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
--
|
--
|
| 2025-10-29 |
2025-11-01 |
--
|
$484.37 |
--
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
--
|
--
|
| 2025-10-30 |
2025-11-02 |
--
|
$477.96 |
--
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
--
|
--
|
| 2025-10-31 |
2025-11-03 |
--
|
$469.46 |
--
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
--
|
--
|
| 2025-11-01 |
2025-11-04 |
--
|
$471.33 |
--
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
--
|
--
|
| 2025-11-02 |
2025-11-05 |
--
|
$468.70 |
--
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
--
|
--
|
| 2025-11-03 |
2025-11-06 |
--
|
$461.64 |
--
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
--
|
--
|