Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL)
Model Evaluation — last 100 days for Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL)
MAPE: 1.22%
MAE: 1.09
Direction hit: 85.1%
P&L in Period:
--
| Trade Date |
Prediction For |
Actual |
Pred |
Δ actual |
Strategy Action |
Shares Held |
Strategy P&L (Day) |
Cum. P&L (Period) |
| 2025-07-21 |
2025-07-28 |
$88.00
|
$89.81 |
-0.35
|
INITIAL BUY
|
11.42 |
$0.00
|
$0.00
|
| 2025-07-22 |
2025-07-29 |
$88.89
|
$87.92 |
1.34
|
SELL
|
0.00 |
$16.56
|
$16.56
|
| 2025-07-23 |
2025-07-30 |
$86.50
|
$88.36 |
-2.50
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$16.56
|
| 2025-07-24 |
2025-07-31 |
$86.12
|
$86.93 |
-2.50
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$16.56
|
| 2025-07-25 |
2025-08-01 |
$85.61
|
$87.89 |
-2.39
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$16.56
|
| 2025-07-28 |
2025-08-04 |
$86.06
|
$85.01 |
-2.83
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$16.56
|
| 2025-07-29 |
2025-08-05 |
$88.00
|
$88.40 |
1.50
|
INITIAL BUY
|
11.61 |
$0.00
|
$16.56
|
| 2025-07-30 |
2025-08-06 |
$88.51
|
$89.24 |
2.39
|
SCALE-IN
|
17.45 |
$0.00
|
$16.56
|
| 2025-07-31 |
2025-08-07 |
$88.66
|
$87.59 |
3.05
|
SCALE-IN
|
23.26 |
$0.00
|
$16.56
|
| 2025-08-01 |
2025-08-08 |
$89.76
|
$90.76 |
3.70
|
SCALE-IN
|
28.94 |
$0.00
|
$16.56
|
| 2025-08-04 |
2025-08-11 |
$88.86
|
$85.48 |
0.86
|
SELL
|
0.00 |
$61.82
|
$78.38
|
| 2025-08-05 |
2025-08-12 |
$88.83
|
$88.10 |
0.32
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$78.38
|
| 2025-08-06 |
2025-08-13 |
$89.88
|
$89.39 |
1.22
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$78.38
|
| 2025-08-07 |
2025-08-14 |
$87.78
|
$89.09 |
-1.98
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$78.38
|
| 2025-08-08 |
2025-08-15 |
$89.95
|
$91.44 |
1.09
|
INITIAL BUY
|
11.26 |
$0.00
|
$78.38
|
| 2025-08-11 |
2025-08-18 |
$91.46
|
$91.78 |
2.63
|
SCALE-IN
|
16.82 |
$0.00
|
$78.38
|
| 2025-08-12 |
2025-08-19 |
$90.72
|
$90.46 |
0.84
|
SCALE-IN
|
22.52 |
$0.00
|
$78.38
|
| 2025-08-13 |
2025-08-20 |
$90.35
|
$89.05 |
2.57
|
SELL
|
0.00 |
$25.36
|
$103.74
|
| 2025-08-14 |
2025-08-21 |
$91.84
|
$90.56 |
1.89
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$103.74
|
| 2025-08-15 |
2025-08-22 |
$92.84
|
$92.87 |
1.38
|
INITIAL BUY
|
11.02 |
$0.00
|
$103.74
|
| 2025-08-18 |
2025-08-25 |
$93.54
|
$92.32 |
2.82
|
SCALE-IN
|
16.56 |
$0.00
|
$103.74
|
| 2025-08-19 |
2025-08-26 |
$93.41
|
$94.02 |
3.06
|
SCALE-IN
|
22.00 |
$0.00
|
$103.74
|
| 2025-08-20 |
2025-08-27 |
$91.88
|
$92.26 |
0.04
|
SELL
|
0.00 |
$42.59
|
$146.33
|
| 2025-08-21 |
2025-08-28 |
$90.90
|
$91.70 |
-1.94
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$146.33
|
| 2025-08-22 |
2025-08-29 |
$91.71
|
$92.04 |
-1.83
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$146.33
|
| 2025-08-25 |
2025-09-01 |
$91.20
|
$91.77 |
-2.21
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$146.33
|
| 2025-08-26 |
2025-09-02 |
$91.53
|
$93.64 |
-0.35
|
INITIAL BUY
|
11.00 |
$0.00
|
$146.33
|
| 2025-08-27 |
2025-09-03 |
$91.32
|
$90.83 |
0.42
|
SELL
|
0.00 |
$8.91
|
$155.24
|
| 2025-08-28 |
2025-09-04 |
$92.90
|
$92.50 |
1.19
|
INITIAL BUY
|
10.96 |
$0.00
|
$155.24
|
| 2025-08-29 |
2025-09-05 |
$92.22
|
$93.62 |
1.02
|
SCALE-IN
|
16.43 |
$0.00
|
$155.24
|
| 2025-09-02 |
2025-09-09 |
$91.29
|
$91.16 |
-0.24
|
SELL
|
0.00 |
$0.17
|
$155.41
|
| 2025-09-03 |
2025-09-10 |
$90.90
|
$91.16 |
-0.42
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$155.41
|
| 2025-09-04 |
2025-09-11 |
$89.61
|
$89.94 |
-3.29
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$155.41
|
| 2025-09-05 |
2025-09-12 |
$90.60
|
$91.63 |
-1.62
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$155.41
|
| 2025-09-08 |
2025-09-15 |
$92.29
|
$94.33 |
1.00
|
INITIAL BUY
|
11.00 |
$0.00
|
$155.41
|
| 2025-09-09 |
2025-09-16 |
$92.26
|
$92.70 |
1.36
|
SCALE-IN
|
16.58 |
$0.00
|
$155.41
|
| 2025-09-10 |
2025-09-17 |
$89.86
|
$89.91 |
0.25
|
SELL
|
0.00 |
$2.22
|
$157.63
|
| 2025-09-11 |
2025-09-18 |
$87.38
|
$90.79 |
-3.22
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$157.63
|
| 2025-09-12 |
2025-09-19 |
$87.35
|
$89.12 |
-4.94
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$157.63
|
| 2025-09-15 |
2025-09-22 |
$88.19
|
$88.11 |
-4.07
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$157.63
|
| 2025-09-16 |
2025-09-23 |
$88.40
|
$90.16 |
-1.46
|
INITIAL BUY
|
11.44 |
$0.00
|
$157.63
|
| 2025-09-17 |
2025-09-24 |
$88.03
|
$88.98 |
0.65
|
SCALE-IN
|
17.17 |
$0.00
|
$157.63
|
| 2025-09-18 |
2025-09-25 |
$88.46
|
$87.55 |
1.11
|
SELL
|
0.00 |
$14.08
|
$171.71
|
| 2025-09-19 |
2025-09-26 |
$90.76
|
$90.45 |
2.57
|
INITIAL BUY
|
11.31 |
$0.00
|
$171.71
|
| 2025-09-22 |
2025-09-29 |
$89.57
|
$89.37 |
1.17
|
SCALE-IN
|
16.99 |
$0.00
|
$171.71
|
| 2025-09-23 |
2025-09-30 |
$90.88
|
$90.41 |
2.85
|
SCALE-IN
|
22.64 |
$0.00
|
$171.71
|
| 2025-09-24 |
2025-10-01 |
$89.83
|
$88.96 |
1.37
|
SELL
|
0.00 |
$55.20
|
$226.91
|
| 2025-09-25 |
2025-10-02 |
$90.73
|
$92.47 |
-0.03
|
INITIAL BUY
|
11.16 |
$0.00
|
$226.91
|
| 2025-09-26 |
2025-10-03 |
$90.31
|
$89.15 |
0.74
|
SELL
|
0.00 |
$14.63
|
$241.54
|
| 2025-09-29 |
2025-10-06 |
$89.08
|
$88.45 |
-1.80
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$241.54
|
| 2025-09-30 |
2025-10-07 |
$90.79
|
$88.91 |
0.96
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$241.54
|
| 2025-10-01 |
2025-10-08 |
$91.35
|
$91.85 |
0.62
|
INITIAL BUY
|
11.07 |
$0.00
|
$241.54
|
| 2025-10-02 |
2025-10-09 |
$94.10
|
$91.61 |
3.79
|
SCALE-IN
|
16.69 |
$0.00
|
$241.54
|
| 2025-10-03 |
2025-10-10 |
$93.10
|
$92.35 |
4.02
|
SCALE-IN
|
22.19 |
$0.00
|
$241.54
|
| 2025-10-06 |
2025-10-13 |
$92.23
|
$92.51 |
1.44
|
SCALE-IN
|
27.67 |
$0.00
|
$241.54
|
| 2025-10-07 |
2025-10-14 |
$92.47
|
$92.67 |
1.12
|
SELL
|
0.00 |
$103.42
|
$344.96
|
| 2025-10-08 |
2025-10-15 |
$92.25
|
$92.23 |
-1.85
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$344.96
|
| 2025-10-09 |
2025-10-16 |
$92.23
|
$90.54 |
-0.87
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$344.96
|
| 2025-10-10 |
2025-10-17 |
$89.57
|
$91.35 |
-2.66
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$344.96
|
| 2025-10-13 |
2025-10-20 |
$86.23
|
$90.31 |
-6.24
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$344.96
|
| 2025-10-14 |
2025-10-21 |
$86.51
|
$89.91 |
-5.74
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$344.96
|
| 2025-10-15 |
2025-10-22 |
$86.97
|
$89.14 |
-5.26
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$344.96
|
| 2025-10-16 |
2025-10-23 |
$87.70
|
$87.57 |
-1.87
|
INITIAL BUY
|
11.60 |
$0.00
|
$344.96
|
| 2025-10-22 |
2025-10-23 |
$87.46
|
$86.01 |
--
|
SELL
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$-1305.79
|
| 2025-10-23 |
2025-10-26 |
--
|
$86.63 |
--
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
--
|
| 2025-10-24 |
2025-10-27 |
$85.94
|
$87.63 |
--
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
--
|
| 2025-10-27 |
2025-10-30 |
--
|
$88.44 |
--
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
--
|
| 2025-10-25 |
2025-10-28 |
--
|
$88.66 |
--
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
--
|
--
|
| 2025-10-26 |
2025-10-29 |
--
|
$88.81 |
--
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
--
|
--
|
| 2025-10-28 |
2025-10-31 |
--
|
$91.49 |
--
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
--
|
--
|
| 2025-10-29 |
2025-11-01 |
--
|
$91.04 |
--
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
--
|
--
|
| 2025-10-30 |
2025-11-02 |
--
|
$92.32 |
--
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
--
|
--
|
| 2025-10-31 |
2025-11-03 |
--
|
$90.92 |
--
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
--
|
--
|
| 2025-11-01 |
2025-11-04 |
--
|
$91.74 |
--
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
--
|
--
|
| 2025-11-02 |
2025-11-05 |
--
|
$90.87 |
--
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
--
|
--
|
| 2025-11-03 |
2025-11-06 |
--
|
$92.06 |
--
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
--
|
--
|