Alaska Air Group, Inc. (ALK)
Model Evaluation — last 100 days for Alaska Air Group, Inc. (ALK)
MAPE: 1.95%
MAE: 1.08
Direction hit: 85.1%
P&L in Period:
--
| Trade Date |
Prediction For |
Actual |
Pred |
Δ actual |
Strategy Action |
Shares Held |
Strategy P&L (Day) |
Cum. P&L (Period) |
| 2025-07-21 |
2025-07-28 |
$50.83
|
$51.42 |
-2.32
|
SELL
|
0.00 |
$-10.16
|
$-10.16
|
| 2025-07-22 |
2025-07-29 |
$52.16
|
$52.48 |
-0.45
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$-10.16
|
| 2025-07-23 |
2025-07-30 |
$54.33
|
$55.22 |
1.27
|
INITIAL BUY
|
18.56 |
$0.00
|
$-10.16
|
| 2025-07-24 |
2025-07-31 |
$54.15
|
$53.43 |
0.27
|
SELL
|
0.00 |
$-56.61
|
$-66.77
|
| 2025-07-25 |
2025-08-01 |
$53.33
|
$53.52 |
2.50
|
INITIAL BUY
|
19.17 |
$0.00
|
$-66.77
|
| 2025-07-28 |
2025-08-04 |
$52.96
|
$52.45 |
0.80
|
SELL
|
0.00 |
$41.60
|
$-25.16
|
| 2025-07-29 |
2025-08-05 |
$51.37
|
$52.14 |
-2.96
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$-25.16
|
| 2025-07-30 |
2025-08-06 |
$52.58
|
$51.38 |
-1.57
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$-25.16
|
| 2025-07-31 |
2025-08-07 |
$53.18
|
$52.03 |
-0.15
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$-25.16
|
| 2025-08-01 |
2025-08-08 |
$54.00
|
$53.95 |
1.04
|
INITIAL BUY
|
19.47 |
$0.00
|
$-25.16
|
| 2025-08-04 |
2025-08-11 |
$53.25
|
$54.47 |
1.88
|
SCALE-IN
|
28.98 |
$0.00
|
$-25.16
|
| 2025-08-05 |
2025-08-12 |
$52.28
|
$52.16 |
-0.30
|
SELL
|
0.00 |
$40.94
|
$15.78
|
| 2025-08-06 |
2025-08-13 |
$51.14
|
$52.92 |
-2.04
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$15.78
|
| 2025-08-07 |
2025-08-14 |
$56.22
|
$54.69 |
2.22
|
INITIAL BUY
|
18.78 |
$0.00
|
$15.78
|
| 2025-08-08 |
2025-08-15 |
$57.75
|
$55.23 |
4.50
|
SCALE-IN
|
28.34 |
$0.00
|
$15.78
|
| 2025-08-11 |
2025-08-18 |
$56.87
|
$54.70 |
4.59
|
SCALE-IN
|
38.12 |
$0.00
|
$15.78
|
| 2025-08-12 |
2025-08-19 |
$57.36
|
$58.75 |
6.22
|
SCALE-IN
|
47.01 |
$0.00
|
$15.78
|
| 2025-08-13 |
2025-08-20 |
$57.40
|
$55.32 |
1.18
|
SELL
|
0.00 |
$215.06
|
$230.83
|
| 2025-08-14 |
2025-08-21 |
$57.12
|
$55.28 |
-0.63
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$230.83
|
| 2025-08-15 |
2025-08-22 |
$55.93
|
$55.73 |
-0.94
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$230.83
|
| 2025-08-18 |
2025-08-25 |
$54.92
|
$56.25 |
-2.44
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$230.83
|
| 2025-08-19 |
2025-08-26 |
$59.50
|
$58.81 |
2.10
|
INITIAL BUY
|
17.51 |
$0.00
|
$230.83
|
| 2025-08-20 |
2025-08-27 |
$60.01
|
$58.29 |
2.89
|
SCALE-IN
|
26.45 |
$0.00
|
$230.83
|
| 2025-08-21 |
2025-08-28 |
$60.32
|
$57.75 |
4.39
|
SCALE-IN
|
35.55 |
$0.00
|
$230.83
|
| 2025-08-22 |
2025-08-29 |
$61.84
|
$60.35 |
6.92
|
SCALE-IN
|
43.95 |
$0.00
|
$230.83
|
| 2025-08-25 |
2025-09-01 |
$63.18
|
$62.74 |
3.68
|
SCALE-IN
|
52.29 |
$0.00
|
$230.83
|
| 2025-08-26 |
2025-09-02 |
$62.78
|
$62.44 |
2.77
|
SCALE-IN
|
60.58 |
$0.00
|
$230.83
|
| 2025-08-27 |
2025-09-03 |
$62.59
|
$63.12 |
2.27
|
SCALE-IN
|
68.66 |
$0.00
|
$230.83
|
| 2025-08-28 |
2025-09-04 |
$62.50
|
$61.55 |
0.66
|
SELL
|
0.00 |
$337.98
|
$568.82
|
| 2025-08-29 |
2025-09-05 |
$62.81
|
$62.40 |
-0.37
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$568.82
|
| 2025-09-02 |
2025-09-09 |
$63.15
|
$65.03 |
0.37
|
INITIAL BUY
|
15.98 |
$0.00
|
$568.82
|
| 2025-09-03 |
2025-09-10 |
$63.69
|
$63.73 |
1.10
|
SCALE-IN
|
23.98 |
$0.00
|
$568.82
|
| 2025-09-04 |
2025-09-11 |
$62.29
|
$62.11 |
-0.21
|
SELL
|
0.00 |
$5.99
|
$574.81
|
| 2025-09-05 |
2025-09-12 |
$62.65
|
$62.24 |
-0.16
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$574.81
|
| 2025-09-08 |
2025-09-15 |
$63.86
|
$62.78 |
0.71
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$574.81
|
| 2025-09-09 |
2025-09-16 |
$63.37
|
$64.42 |
-0.32
|
INITIAL BUY
|
16.05 |
$0.00
|
$574.81
|
| 2025-09-10 |
2025-09-17 |
$59.13
|
$61.74 |
-3.16
|
SELL
|
0.00 |
$5.78
|
$580.59
|
| 2025-09-11 |
2025-09-18 |
$57.60
|
$62.62 |
-5.05
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$580.59
|
| 2025-09-12 |
2025-09-19 |
$58.49
|
$60.60 |
-5.37
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$580.59
|
| 2025-09-15 |
2025-09-22 |
$57.40
|
$57.16 |
-5.97
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$580.59
|
| 2025-09-16 |
2025-09-23 |
$57.25
|
$55.91 |
-1.88
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$580.59
|
| 2025-09-17 |
2025-09-24 |
$54.78
|
$56.95 |
-2.82
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$580.59
|
| 2025-09-18 |
2025-09-25 |
$54.14
|
$55.05 |
-4.35
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$580.59
|
| 2025-09-19 |
2025-09-26 |
$52.90
|
$54.90 |
-4.50
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$580.59
|
| 2025-09-22 |
2025-09-29 |
$51.29
|
$52.45 |
-5.96
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$580.59
|
| 2025-09-23 |
2025-09-30 |
$50.88
|
$50.56 |
-3.90
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$580.59
|
| 2025-09-24 |
2025-10-01 |
$50.44
|
$50.97 |
-3.70
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$580.59
|
| 2025-09-25 |
2025-10-02 |
$49.78
|
$50.00 |
-3.12
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$580.59
|
| 2025-09-26 |
2025-10-03 |
$48.50
|
$48.81 |
-2.79
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$580.59
|
| 2025-09-29 |
2025-10-06 |
$48.98
|
$48.04 |
-1.90
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$580.59
|
| 2025-09-30 |
2025-10-07 |
$49.19
|
$48.01 |
-1.25
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$580.59
|
| 2025-10-01 |
2025-10-08 |
$48.46
|
$47.55 |
-1.32
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$580.59
|
| 2025-10-02 |
2025-10-09 |
$49.00
|
$48.30 |
0.50
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$580.59
|
| 2025-10-03 |
2025-10-10 |
$49.14
|
$48.75 |
0.16
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$580.59
|
| 2025-10-06 |
2025-10-13 |
$49.15
|
$50.55 |
-0.04
|
INITIAL BUY
|
20.64 |
$0.00
|
$580.59
|
| 2025-10-07 |
2025-10-14 |
$47.22
|
$48.21 |
-1.24
|
SELL
|
0.00 |
$11.14
|
$591.73
|
| 2025-10-08 |
2025-10-15 |
$48.27
|
$47.06 |
-0.73
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$591.73
|
| 2025-10-09 |
2025-10-16 |
$49.42
|
$50.39 |
0.28
|
INITIAL BUY
|
20.35 |
$0.00
|
$591.73
|
| 2025-10-10 |
2025-10-17 |
$48.84
|
$48.16 |
-0.31
|
SCALE-IN
|
30.93 |
$0.00
|
$591.73
|
| 2025-10-13 |
2025-10-20 |
$47.78
|
$47.15 |
0.56
|
SELL
|
0.00 |
$-6.79
|
$584.95
|
| 2025-10-14 |
2025-10-21 |
$47.31
|
$48.61 |
-0.96
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$584.95
|
| 2025-10-15 |
2025-10-22 |
$48.50
|
$47.48 |
-0.92
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$584.95
|
| 2025-10-16 |
2025-10-23 |
$49.01
|
$49.24 |
0.17
|
INITIAL BUY
|
20.93 |
$0.00
|
$584.95
|
| 2025-10-22 |
2025-10-23 |
$46.63
|
$44.78 |
--
|
SELL
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$-3185.12
|
| 2025-10-23 |
2025-10-26 |
--
|
$47.22 |
--
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
--
|
| 2025-10-24 |
2025-10-27 |
$44.78
|
$43.41 |
--
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
--
|
| 2025-10-27 |
2025-10-30 |
--
|
$44.82 |
--
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
--
|
| 2025-10-25 |
2025-10-28 |
--
|
$44.95 |
--
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
--
|
--
|
| 2025-10-26 |
2025-10-29 |
--
|
$44.15 |
--
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
--
|
--
|
| 2025-10-28 |
2025-10-31 |
--
|
$43.37 |
--
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
--
|
--
|
| 2025-10-29 |
2025-11-01 |
--
|
$42.94 |
--
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
--
|
--
|
| 2025-10-30 |
2025-11-02 |
--
|
$42.45 |
--
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
--
|
--
|
| 2025-10-31 |
2025-11-03 |
--
|
$41.91 |
--
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
--
|
--
|
| 2025-11-01 |
2025-11-04 |
--
|
$41.20 |
--
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
--
|
--
|
| 2025-11-02 |
2025-11-05 |
--
|
$40.51 |
--
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
--
|
--
|
| 2025-11-03 |
2025-11-06 |
--
|
$40.16 |
--
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
--
|
--
|