Fastenal Company (FAST)
Model Evaluation — last 100 days for Fastenal Company (FAST)
MAPE: 1.28%
MAE: 0.60
Direction hit: 92.5%
P&L in Period:
--
| Trade Date |
Prediction For |
Actual |
Pred |
Δ actual |
Strategy Action |
Shares Held |
Strategy P&L (Day) |
Cum. P&L (Period) |
| 2025-07-21 |
2025-07-28 |
$47.93
|
$47.24 |
1.87
|
SCALE-IN
|
146.94 |
$0.00
|
$0.00
|
| 2025-07-22 |
2025-07-29 |
$47.75
|
$48.46 |
1.73
|
SCALE-IN
|
157.56 |
$0.00
|
$0.00
|
| 2025-07-23 |
2025-07-30 |
$46.80
|
$46.67 |
-0.28
|
SELL
|
0.00 |
$473.11
|
$473.12
|
| 2025-07-24 |
2025-07-31 |
$46.60
|
$47.10 |
-0.83
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$473.12
|
| 2025-07-25 |
2025-08-01 |
$46.41
|
$46.94 |
-1.52
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$473.12
|
| 2025-07-28 |
2025-08-04 |
$46.13
|
$45.81 |
-1.62
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$473.12
|
| 2025-07-29 |
2025-08-05 |
$45.44
|
$45.67 |
-1.36
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$473.12
|
| 2025-07-30 |
2025-08-06 |
$45.37
|
$45.36 |
-1.23
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$473.12
|
| 2025-07-31 |
2025-08-07 |
$45.44
|
$45.20 |
-0.97
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$473.12
|
| 2025-08-01 |
2025-08-08 |
$46.78
|
$46.75 |
0.65
|
INITIAL BUY
|
22.01 |
$0.00
|
$473.12
|
| 2025-08-04 |
2025-08-11 |
$47.48
|
$46.12 |
2.04
|
SCALE-IN
|
33.03 |
$0.00
|
$473.12
|
| 2025-08-05 |
2025-08-12 |
$47.99
|
$46.99 |
2.62
|
SCALE-IN
|
44.03 |
$0.00
|
$473.12
|
| 2025-08-06 |
2025-08-13 |
$47.84
|
$48.05 |
2.40
|
SCALE-IN
|
54.72 |
$0.00
|
$473.12
|
| 2025-08-07 |
2025-08-14 |
$48.45
|
$48.82 |
1.67
|
SCALE-IN
|
65.25 |
$0.00
|
$473.12
|
| 2025-08-08 |
2025-08-15 |
$49.21
|
$49.34 |
1.73
|
SCALE-IN
|
75.67 |
$0.00
|
$473.12
|
| 2025-08-11 |
2025-08-18 |
$48.69
|
$49.01 |
0.70
|
SCALE-IN
|
86.12 |
$0.00
|
$473.12
|
| 2025-08-12 |
2025-08-19 |
$48.88
|
$49.48 |
1.04
|
SCALE-IN
|
96.44 |
$0.00
|
$473.12
|
| 2025-08-13 |
2025-08-20 |
$49.11
|
$48.75 |
0.66
|
SELL
|
0.00 |
$245.83
|
$718.95
|
| 2025-08-14 |
2025-08-21 |
$49.90
|
$49.90 |
0.69
|
INITIAL BUY
|
20.54 |
$0.00
|
$718.95
|
| 2025-08-15 |
2025-08-22 |
$49.54
|
$49.71 |
0.85
|
SCALE-IN
|
30.77 |
$0.00
|
$718.95
|
| 2025-08-18 |
2025-08-25 |
$49.14
|
$48.74 |
0.26
|
SELL
|
0.00 |
$10.98
|
$729.93
|
| 2025-08-19 |
2025-08-26 |
$50.39
|
$51.08 |
1.28
|
INITIAL BUY
|
20.04 |
$0.00
|
$729.93
|
| 2025-08-20 |
2025-08-27 |
$50.27
|
$50.43 |
0.37
|
SCALE-IN
|
30.13 |
$0.00
|
$729.93
|
| 2025-08-21 |
2025-08-28 |
$49.96
|
$50.60 |
0.42
|
SCALE-IN
|
40.31 |
$0.00
|
$729.93
|
| 2025-08-22 |
2025-08-29 |
$50.20
|
$49.66 |
1.06
|
SELL
|
0.00 |
$31.12
|
$761.05
|
| 2025-08-25 |
2025-09-01 |
$50.18
|
$49.76 |
-0.21
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$761.05
|
| 2025-08-26 |
2025-09-02 |
$49.66
|
$49.81 |
-0.61
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$761.05
|
| 2025-08-27 |
2025-09-03 |
$49.19
|
$49.48 |
-0.77
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$761.05
|
| 2025-08-28 |
2025-09-04 |
$49.52
|
$49.65 |
-0.68
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$761.05
|
| 2025-08-29 |
2025-09-05 |
$50.27
|
$51.03 |
0.09
|
INITIAL BUY
|
20.14 |
$0.00
|
$761.05
|
| 2025-09-02 |
2025-09-09 |
$47.99
|
$48.81 |
-1.67
|
SELL
|
0.00 |
$-9.46
|
$751.58
|
| 2025-09-03 |
2025-09-10 |
$48.19
|
$48.96 |
-1.00
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$751.58
|
| 2025-09-04 |
2025-09-11 |
$47.90
|
$49.52 |
-1.62
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$751.58
|
| 2025-09-05 |
2025-09-12 |
$47.97
|
$47.42 |
-2.30
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$751.58
|
| 2025-09-08 |
2025-09-15 |
$47.33
|
$47.29 |
-0.66
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$751.58
|
| 2025-09-09 |
2025-09-16 |
$47.45
|
$46.20 |
-0.74
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$751.58
|
| 2025-09-10 |
2025-09-17 |
$47.76
|
$46.65 |
-0.14
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$751.58
|
| 2025-09-11 |
2025-09-18 |
$47.25
|
$46.45 |
-0.72
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$751.58
|
| 2025-09-12 |
2025-09-19 |
$47.12
|
$46.04 |
-0.21
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$751.58
|
| 2025-09-15 |
2025-09-22 |
$47.22
|
$47.10 |
-0.23
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$751.58
|
| 2025-09-16 |
2025-09-23 |
$47.58
|
$48.43 |
-0.18
|
INITIAL BUY
|
21.16 |
$0.00
|
$751.58
|
| 2025-09-17 |
2025-09-24 |
$47.12
|
$46.29 |
-0.13
|
SELL
|
0.00 |
$-2.75
|
$748.83
|
| 2025-09-18 |
2025-09-25 |
$47.99
|
$48.31 |
0.87
|
INITIAL BUY
|
21.18 |
$0.00
|
$748.83
|
| 2025-09-19 |
2025-09-26 |
$47.54
|
$46.64 |
0.32
|
SELL
|
0.00 |
$7.62
|
$756.45
|
| 2025-09-22 |
2025-09-29 |
$47.85
|
$48.61 |
0.27
|
INITIAL BUY
|
21.22 |
$0.00
|
$756.45
|
| 2025-09-23 |
2025-09-30 |
$48.70
|
$49.51 |
1.58
|
SCALE-IN
|
31.64 |
$0.00
|
$756.45
|
| 2025-09-24 |
2025-10-01 |
$48.87
|
$48.29 |
0.88
|
SCALE-IN
|
42.16 |
$0.00
|
$756.45
|
| 2025-09-25 |
2025-10-02 |
$49.04
|
$48.74 |
1.50
|
SCALE-IN
|
52.61 |
$0.00
|
$756.45
|
| 2025-09-26 |
2025-10-03 |
$47.72
|
$47.26 |
-0.13
|
SELL
|
0.00 |
$62.01
|
$818.47
|
| 2025-09-29 |
2025-10-06 |
$48.17
|
$47.95 |
-0.53
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$818.47
|
| 2025-09-30 |
2025-10-07 |
$47.88
|
$48.46 |
-0.99
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$818.47
|
| 2025-10-01 |
2025-10-08 |
$47.78
|
$47.62 |
-1.26
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$818.47
|
| 2025-10-02 |
2025-10-09 |
$47.45
|
$47.46 |
-0.27
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$818.47
|
| 2025-10-03 |
2025-10-10 |
$47.55
|
$47.15 |
-0.62
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$818.47
|
| 2025-10-06 |
2025-10-13 |
$46.71
|
$47.17 |
-1.17
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$818.47
|
| 2025-10-07 |
2025-10-14 |
$45.78
|
$46.64 |
-2.00
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$818.47
|
| 2025-10-08 |
2025-10-15 |
$42.33
|
$46.26 |
-5.12
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$818.47
|
| 2025-10-09 |
2025-10-16 |
$42.75
|
$43.66 |
-4.80
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$818.47
|
| 2025-10-10 |
2025-10-17 |
$42.24
|
$44.29 |
-4.47
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$818.47
|
| 2025-10-13 |
2025-10-20 |
$41.96
|
$41.63 |
-3.82
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$818.47
|
| 2025-10-14 |
2025-10-21 |
$42.46
|
$41.86 |
0.13
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$818.47
|
| 2025-10-15 |
2025-10-22 |
$42.99
|
$43.50 |
0.24
|
INITIAL BUY
|
23.67 |
$0.00
|
$818.47
|
| 2025-10-16 |
2025-10-23 |
$43.32
|
$42.75 |
1.08
|
SCALE-IN
|
35.59 |
$0.00
|
$818.47
|
| 2025-10-22 |
2025-10-23 |
$42.99
|
$42.57 |
--
|
SELL
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$-1258.69
|
| 2025-10-23 |
2025-10-26 |
--
|
$43.25 |
--
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
--
|
| 2025-10-24 |
2025-10-27 |
$42.54
|
$42.92 |
--
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
--
|
| 2025-10-27 |
2025-10-30 |
--
|
$43.13 |
--
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
--
|
| 2025-10-25 |
2025-10-28 |
--
|
$43.25 |
--
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
--
|
--
|
| 2025-10-26 |
2025-10-29 |
--
|
$43.64 |
--
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
--
|
--
|
| 2025-10-28 |
2025-10-31 |
--
|
$45.44 |
--
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
--
|
--
|
| 2025-10-29 |
2025-11-01 |
--
|
$45.56 |
--
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
--
|
--
|
| 2025-10-30 |
2025-11-02 |
--
|
$45.83 |
--
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
--
|
--
|
| 2025-10-31 |
2025-11-03 |
--
|
$45.24 |
--
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
--
|
--
|
| 2025-11-01 |
2025-11-04 |
--
|
$45.05 |
--
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
--
|
--
|
| 2025-11-02 |
2025-11-05 |
--
|
$44.65 |
--
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
--
|
--
|
| 2025-11-03 |
2025-11-06 |
--
|
$44.69 |
--
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
--
|
--
|