Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC)
Model Evaluation — last 100 days for Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC)
MAPE: 1.46%
MAE: 2.59
Direction hit: 92.5%
P&L in Period:
--
| Trade Date |
Prediction For |
Actual |
Pred |
Δ actual |
Strategy Action |
Shares Held |
Strategy P&L (Day) |
Cum. P&L (Period) |
| 2025-07-21 |
2025-07-28 |
$171.31
|
$171.99 |
-2.90
|
SELL
|
0.00 |
$18.52
|
$18.52
|
| 2025-07-22 |
2025-07-29 |
$171.57
|
$172.03 |
-3.31
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$18.52
|
| 2025-07-23 |
2025-07-30 |
$174.80
|
$169.39 |
-0.45
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$18.52
|
| 2025-07-24 |
2025-07-31 |
$175.43
|
$174.53 |
-2.11
|
INITIAL BUY
|
5.84 |
$0.00
|
$18.52
|
| 2025-07-25 |
2025-08-01 |
$170.78
|
$166.37 |
-0.53
|
SELL
|
0.00 |
$1.52
|
$20.04
|
| 2025-07-28 |
2025-08-04 |
$170.19
|
$171.43 |
-1.38
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$20.04
|
| 2025-07-29 |
2025-08-05 |
$165.53
|
$172.19 |
-9.27
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$20.04
|
| 2025-07-30 |
2025-08-06 |
$167.96
|
$162.33 |
-7.47
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$20.04
|
| 2025-07-31 |
2025-08-07 |
$168.92
|
$165.64 |
-1.86
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$20.04
|
| 2025-08-01 |
2025-08-08 |
$162.44
|
$166.02 |
-7.75
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$20.04
|
| 2025-08-04 |
2025-08-11 |
$161.51
|
$164.45 |
-4.02
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$20.04
|
| 2025-08-05 |
2025-08-12 |
$160.84
|
$165.53 |
-7.12
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$20.04
|
| 2025-08-06 |
2025-08-13 |
$158.59
|
$157.80 |
-10.33
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$20.04
|
| 2025-08-07 |
2025-08-14 |
$159.11
|
$153.94 |
-3.33
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$20.04
|
| 2025-08-08 |
2025-08-15 |
$161.73
|
$164.36 |
0.22
|
INITIAL BUY
|
6.22 |
$0.00
|
$20.04
|
| 2025-08-11 |
2025-08-18 |
$162.32
|
$161.65 |
1.48
|
SCALE-IN
|
9.37 |
$0.00
|
$20.04
|
| 2025-08-12 |
2025-08-19 |
$162.34
|
$161.29 |
3.75
|
SCALE-IN
|
12.51 |
$0.00
|
$20.04
|
| 2025-08-13 |
2025-08-20 |
$162.67
|
$164.65 |
3.56
|
SCALE-IN
|
15.60 |
$0.00
|
$20.04
|
| 2025-08-14 |
2025-08-21 |
$164.38
|
$164.07 |
2.65
|
SCALE-IN
|
18.68 |
$0.00
|
$20.04
|
| 2025-08-15 |
2025-08-22 |
$165.82
|
$164.46 |
3.50
|
SCALE-IN
|
21.76 |
$0.00
|
$20.04
|
| 2025-08-18 |
2025-08-25 |
$164.94
|
$165.46 |
2.60
|
SCALE-IN
|
24.84 |
$0.00
|
$20.04
|
| 2025-08-19 |
2025-08-26 |
$170.88
|
$167.28 |
8.21
|
SCALE-IN
|
27.88 |
$0.00
|
$20.04
|
| 2025-08-20 |
2025-08-27 |
$172.18
|
$170.05 |
7.80
|
SCALE-IN
|
30.90 |
$0.00
|
$20.04
|
| 2025-08-21 |
2025-08-28 |
$173.51
|
$168.32 |
7.69
|
SCALE-IN
|
33.93 |
$0.00
|
$20.04
|
| 2025-08-22 |
2025-08-29 |
$177.89
|
$175.56 |
12.95
|
SCALE-IN
|
36.85 |
$0.00
|
$20.04
|
| 2025-08-25 |
2025-09-01 |
$179.30
|
$178.76 |
8.42
|
SCALE-IN
|
39.76 |
$0.00
|
$20.04
|
| 2025-08-26 |
2025-09-02 |
$179.71
|
$178.56 |
7.53
|
SCALE-IN
|
42.64 |
$0.00
|
$20.04
|
| 2025-08-27 |
2025-09-03 |
$180.15
|
$182.51 |
6.64
|
SCALE-IN
|
45.45 |
$0.00
|
$20.04
|
| 2025-08-28 |
2025-09-04 |
$179.00
|
$174.66 |
1.11
|
SELL
|
0.00 |
$649.01
|
$669.05
|
| 2025-08-29 |
2025-09-05 |
$178.98
|
$176.07 |
-0.32
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$669.05
|
| 2025-09-02 |
2025-09-09 |
$180.28
|
$176.45 |
0.57
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$669.05
|
| 2025-09-03 |
2025-09-10 |
$181.19
|
$181.93 |
1.04
|
INITIAL BUY
|
5.59 |
$0.00
|
$669.05
|
| 2025-09-04 |
2025-09-11 |
$183.18
|
$182.72 |
4.18
|
SCALE-IN
|
8.38 |
$0.00
|
$669.05
|
| 2025-09-05 |
2025-09-12 |
$181.69
|
$186.24 |
2.71
|
SCALE-IN
|
11.15 |
$0.00
|
$669.05
|
| 2025-09-08 |
2025-09-15 |
$182.31
|
$185.10 |
2.03
|
SCALE-IN
|
13.91 |
$0.00
|
$669.05
|
| 2025-09-09 |
2025-09-16 |
$180.28
|
$176.40 |
-0.91
|
SELL
|
0.00 |
$48.62
|
$717.67
|
| 2025-09-10 |
2025-09-17 |
$179.94
|
$178.24 |
-3.24
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$717.67
|
| 2025-09-11 |
2025-09-18 |
$182.99
|
$177.53 |
1.30
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$717.67
|
| 2025-09-12 |
2025-09-19 |
$184.68
|
$184.98 |
2.37
|
INITIAL BUY
|
5.55 |
$0.00
|
$717.67
|
| 2025-09-15 |
2025-09-22 |
$185.03
|
$183.58 |
4.75
|
SCALE-IN
|
8.33 |
$0.00
|
$717.67
|
| 2025-09-16 |
2025-09-23 |
$185.46
|
$187.83 |
5.52
|
SCALE-IN
|
11.06 |
$0.00
|
$717.67
|
| 2025-09-17 |
2025-09-24 |
$187.25
|
$187.81 |
4.26
|
SCALE-IN
|
13.77 |
$0.00
|
$717.67
|
| 2025-09-18 |
2025-09-25 |
$190.87
|
$188.70 |
6.19
|
SCALE-IN
|
16.47 |
$0.00
|
$717.67
|
| 2025-09-19 |
2025-09-26 |
$193.10
|
$190.66 |
8.07
|
SCALE-IN
|
19.16 |
$0.00
|
$717.67
|
| 2025-09-22 |
2025-09-29 |
$196.44
|
$192.28 |
10.98
|
SCALE-IN
|
21.83 |
$0.00
|
$717.67
|
| 2025-09-23 |
2025-09-30 |
$198.69
|
$198.31 |
11.44
|
SCALE-IN
|
24.45 |
$0.00
|
$717.67
|
| 2025-09-24 |
2025-10-01 |
$196.47
|
$200.08 |
5.60
|
SCALE-IN
|
27.04 |
$0.00
|
$717.67
|
| 2025-09-25 |
2025-10-02 |
$192.74
|
$192.74 |
-0.36
|
SELL
|
0.00 |
$312.29
|
$1029.96
|
| 2025-09-26 |
2025-10-03 |
$192.31
|
$190.75 |
-4.13
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$1029.96
|
| 2025-09-29 |
2025-10-06 |
$192.24
|
$191.86 |
-6.45
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$1029.96
|
| 2025-09-30 |
2025-10-07 |
$193.14
|
$189.17 |
-3.33
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$1029.96
|
| 2025-10-01 |
2025-10-08 |
$193.52
|
$198.88 |
0.78
|
INITIAL BUY
|
5.20 |
$0.00
|
$1029.96
|
| 2025-10-02 |
2025-10-09 |
$191.54
|
$187.41 |
-0.77
|
SELL
|
0.00 |
$-0.36
|
$1029.59
|
| 2025-10-03 |
2025-10-10 |
$188.71
|
$188.97 |
-3.53
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$1029.59
|
| 2025-10-06 |
2025-10-13 |
$187.56
|
$190.90 |
-5.58
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$1029.59
|
| 2025-10-07 |
2025-10-14 |
$180.89
|
$189.68 |
-12.63
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$1029.59
|
| 2025-10-08 |
2025-10-15 |
$183.40
|
$179.84 |
-8.14
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$1029.59
|
| 2025-10-09 |
2025-10-16 |
$183.12
|
$184.30 |
-5.59
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$1029.59
|
| 2025-10-10 |
2025-10-17 |
$183.83
|
$185.51 |
-3.73
|
INITIAL BUY
|
5.53 |
$0.00
|
$1029.59
|
| 2025-10-13 |
2025-10-20 |
$181.15
|
$178.61 |
0.26
|
SELL
|
0.00 |
$13.88
|
$1043.47
|
| 2025-10-14 |
2025-10-21 |
$184.47
|
$186.96 |
1.07
|
INITIAL BUY
|
5.46 |
$0.00
|
$1043.47
|
| 2025-10-15 |
2025-10-22 |
$186.27
|
$185.50 |
3.15
|
SCALE-IN
|
8.18 |
$0.00
|
$1043.47
|
| 2025-10-16 |
2025-10-23 |
$182.87
|
$186.13 |
-0.96
|
SCALE-IN
|
10.94 |
$0.00
|
$1043.47
|
| 2025-10-22 |
2025-10-23 |
$195.96
|
$196.19 |
--
|
SELL
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$-3035.44
|
| 2025-10-23 |
2025-10-26 |
--
|
$201.64 |
--
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
--
|
| 2025-10-24 |
2025-10-27 |
$196.23
|
$202.81 |
--
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
--
|
| 2025-10-27 |
2025-10-30 |
--
|
$200.37 |
--
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
--
|
| 2025-10-25 |
2025-10-28 |
--
|
$200.01 |
--
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
--
|
--
|
| 2025-10-26 |
2025-10-29 |
--
|
$203.18 |
--
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
--
|
--
|
| 2025-10-28 |
2025-10-31 |
--
|
$198.33 |
--
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
--
|
--
|
| 2025-10-29 |
2025-11-01 |
--
|
$193.35 |
--
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
--
|
--
|
| 2025-10-30 |
2025-11-02 |
--
|
$193.92 |
--
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
--
|
--
|
| 2025-10-31 |
2025-11-03 |
--
|
$195.30 |
--
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
--
|
--
|
| 2025-11-01 |
2025-11-04 |
--
|
$194.66 |
--
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
--
|
--
|
| 2025-11-02 |
2025-11-05 |
--
|
$194.58 |
--
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
--
|
--
|
| 2025-11-03 |
2025-11-06 |
--
|
$194.53 |
--
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
--
|
--
|