The Progressive Corporation (PGR)
Model Evaluation — last 100 days for The Progressive Corporation (PGR)
MAPE: 1.06%
MAE: 2.54
Direction hit: 85.1%
P&L in Period:
--
| Trade Date |
Prediction For |
Actual |
Pred |
Δ actual |
Strategy Action |
Shares Held |
Strategy P&L (Day) |
Cum. P&L (Period) |
| 2025-07-21 |
2025-07-28 |
$247.38
|
$250.67 |
0.97
|
INITIAL BUY
|
4.08 |
$0.00
|
$0.00
|
| 2025-07-22 |
2025-07-29 |
$250.10
|
$250.73 |
4.97
|
SCALE-IN
|
6.10 |
$0.00
|
$0.00
|
| 2025-07-23 |
2025-07-30 |
$240.97
|
$244.58 |
-6.40
|
SELL
|
0.00 |
$10.11
|
$10.11
|
| 2025-07-24 |
2025-07-31 |
$241.49
|
$241.61 |
-6.04
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$10.11
|
| 2025-07-25 |
2025-08-01 |
$241.71
|
$244.67 |
-5.67
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$10.11
|
| 2025-07-28 |
2025-08-04 |
$242.04
|
$236.17 |
-8.06
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$10.11
|
| 2025-07-29 |
2025-08-05 |
$241.09
|
$238.60 |
0.12
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$10.11
|
| 2025-07-30 |
2025-08-06 |
$241.58
|
$240.61 |
0.09
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$10.11
|
| 2025-07-31 |
2025-08-07 |
$242.94
|
$240.74 |
1.23
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$10.11
|
| 2025-08-01 |
2025-08-08 |
$247.52
|
$246.16 |
5.48
|
INITIAL BUY
|
4.15 |
$0.00
|
$10.11
|
| 2025-08-04 |
2025-08-11 |
$245.31
|
$244.62 |
4.22
|
SCALE-IN
|
6.22 |
$0.00
|
$10.11
|
| 2025-08-05 |
2025-08-12 |
$246.51
|
$249.13 |
4.93
|
SCALE-IN
|
8.28 |
$0.00
|
$10.11
|
| 2025-08-06 |
2025-08-13 |
$244.88
|
$244.39 |
1.94
|
SELL
|
0.00 |
$48.39
|
$58.50
|
| 2025-08-07 |
2025-08-14 |
$243.04
|
$243.12 |
-4.48
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$58.50
|
| 2025-08-08 |
2025-08-15 |
$249.19
|
$251.17 |
3.88
|
INITIAL BUY
|
4.06 |
$0.00
|
$58.50
|
| 2025-08-11 |
2025-08-18 |
$250.95
|
$249.97 |
4.44
|
SCALE-IN
|
6.10 |
$0.00
|
$58.50
|
| 2025-08-12 |
2025-08-19 |
$247.15
|
$248.67 |
2.27
|
SCALE-IN
|
8.16 |
$0.00
|
$58.50
|
| 2025-08-13 |
2025-08-20 |
$247.09
|
$246.12 |
4.05
|
SELL
|
0.00 |
$32.32
|
$90.83
|
| 2025-08-14 |
2025-08-21 |
$250.64
|
$249.15 |
1.45
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$90.83
|
| 2025-08-15 |
2025-08-22 |
$252.68
|
$252.08 |
1.73
|
INITIAL BUY
|
4.05 |
$0.00
|
$90.83
|
| 2025-08-18 |
2025-08-25 |
$248.95
|
$252.97 |
1.80
|
SCALE-IN
|
6.07 |
$0.00
|
$90.83
|
| 2025-08-19 |
2025-08-26 |
$249.21
|
$247.86 |
2.12
|
SELL
|
0.00 |
$21.30
|
$112.13
|
| 2025-08-20 |
2025-08-27 |
$244.09
|
$251.79 |
-6.55
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$112.13
|
| 2025-08-21 |
2025-08-28 |
$246.03
|
$245.35 |
-6.65
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$112.13
|
| 2025-08-22 |
2025-08-29 |
$244.69
|
$245.79 |
-4.26
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$112.13
|
| 2025-08-25 |
2025-09-01 |
$246.11
|
$249.87 |
-3.10
|
INITIAL BUY
|
4.10 |
$0.00
|
$112.13
|
| 2025-08-26 |
2025-09-02 |
$247.06
|
$244.30 |
2.97
|
SELL
|
0.00 |
$7.95
|
$120.08
|
| 2025-08-27 |
2025-09-03 |
$245.86
|
$243.14 |
-0.17
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$120.08
|
| 2025-08-28 |
2025-09-04 |
$246.72
|
$244.84 |
2.03
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$120.08
|
| 2025-08-29 |
2025-09-05 |
$249.01
|
$253.55 |
2.90
|
INITIAL BUY
|
4.05 |
$0.00
|
$120.08
|
| 2025-09-02 |
2025-09-09 |
$243.86
|
$242.84 |
-3.20
|
SELL
|
0.00 |
$-4.86
|
$115.22
|
| 2025-09-03 |
2025-09-10 |
$245.94
|
$246.90 |
0.08
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$115.22
|
| 2025-09-04 |
2025-09-11 |
$243.26
|
$245.90 |
-3.46
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$115.22
|
| 2025-09-05 |
2025-09-12 |
$246.41
|
$247.68 |
-2.60
|
INITIAL BUY
|
4.10 |
$0.00
|
$115.22
|
| 2025-09-08 |
2025-09-15 |
$248.80
|
$252.75 |
4.94
|
SCALE-IN
|
6.13 |
$0.00
|
$115.22
|
| 2025-09-09 |
2025-09-16 |
$248.28
|
$248.13 |
2.34
|
SCALE-IN
|
8.19 |
$0.00
|
$115.22
|
| 2025-09-10 |
2025-09-17 |
$245.65
|
$243.31 |
2.39
|
SELL
|
0.00 |
$17.89
|
$133.11
|
| 2025-09-11 |
2025-09-18 |
$244.97
|
$247.14 |
-1.44
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$133.11
|
| 2025-09-12 |
2025-09-19 |
$243.61
|
$245.32 |
-5.19
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$133.11
|
| 2025-09-15 |
2025-09-22 |
$242.00
|
$242.81 |
-6.28
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$133.11
|
| 2025-09-16 |
2025-09-23 |
$242.34
|
$240.78 |
-3.31
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$133.11
|
| 2025-09-17 |
2025-09-24 |
$241.15
|
$240.91 |
-3.82
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$133.11
|
| 2025-09-18 |
2025-09-25 |
$238.61
|
$240.60 |
-5.00
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$133.11
|
| 2025-09-19 |
2025-09-26 |
$240.00
|
$241.55 |
-2.00
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$133.11
|
| 2025-09-22 |
2025-09-29 |
$242.19
|
$237.53 |
-0.15
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$133.11
|
| 2025-09-23 |
2025-09-30 |
$243.48
|
$243.69 |
2.33
|
INITIAL BUY
|
4.19 |
$0.00
|
$133.11
|
| 2025-09-24 |
2025-10-01 |
$244.40
|
$245.71 |
5.79
|
SCALE-IN
|
6.27 |
$0.00
|
$133.11
|
| 2025-09-25 |
2025-10-02 |
$246.95
|
$244.32 |
6.95
|
SCALE-IN
|
8.34 |
$0.00
|
$133.11
|
| 2025-09-26 |
2025-10-03 |
$246.46
|
$250.02 |
4.27
|
SCALE-IN
|
10.39 |
$0.00
|
$133.11
|
| 2025-09-29 |
2025-10-06 |
$243.50
|
$243.03 |
0.02
|
SELL
|
0.00 |
$39.88
|
$172.99
|
| 2025-09-30 |
2025-10-07 |
$245.70
|
$245.73 |
1.30
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$172.99
|
| 2025-10-01 |
2025-10-08 |
$240.50
|
$242.90 |
-6.45
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$172.99
|
| 2025-10-02 |
2025-10-09 |
$243.89
|
$238.69 |
-2.57
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$172.99
|
| 2025-10-03 |
2025-10-10 |
$243.06
|
$242.88 |
-0.44
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$172.99
|
| 2025-10-06 |
2025-10-13 |
$242.16
|
$245.89 |
-3.54
|
INITIAL BUY
|
4.16 |
$0.00
|
$172.99
|
| 2025-10-07 |
2025-10-14 |
$240.00
|
$240.87 |
-0.50
|
SELL
|
0.00 |
$14.10
|
$187.09
|
| 2025-10-08 |
2025-10-15 |
$236.28
|
$240.36 |
-7.61
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$187.09
|
| 2025-10-09 |
2025-10-16 |
$240.40
|
$240.41 |
-2.66
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$187.09
|
| 2025-10-10 |
2025-10-17 |
$226.50
|
$239.52 |
-15.66
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$187.09
|
| 2025-10-13 |
2025-10-20 |
$221.74
|
$235.82 |
-18.26
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$187.09
|
| 2025-10-14 |
2025-10-21 |
$225.61
|
$235.84 |
-10.67
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$187.09
|
| 2025-10-15 |
2025-10-22 |
$219.38
|
$221.11 |
-21.02
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$187.09
|
| 2025-10-16 |
2025-10-23 |
$221.60
|
$217.65 |
-4.90
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$187.09
|
| 2025-10-22 |
2025-10-23 |
$220.59
|
$216.63 |
--
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$-1724.54
|
| 2025-10-23 |
2025-10-26 |
--
|
$218.89 |
--
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
--
|
| 2025-10-24 |
2025-10-27 |
$216.59
|
$219.47 |
--
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
--
|
| 2025-10-27 |
2025-10-30 |
--
|
$217.38 |
--
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
--
|
| 2025-10-25 |
2025-10-28 |
--
|
$220.69 |
--
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
--
|
--
|
| 2025-10-26 |
2025-10-29 |
--
|
$224.91 |
--
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
--
|
--
|
| 2025-10-28 |
2025-10-31 |
--
|
$225.04 |
--
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
--
|
--
|
| 2025-10-29 |
2025-11-01 |
--
|
$226.06 |
--
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
--
|
--
|
| 2025-10-30 |
2025-11-02 |
--
|
$224.94 |
--
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
--
|
--
|
| 2025-10-31 |
2025-11-03 |
--
|
$227.08 |
--
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
--
|
--
|
| 2025-11-01 |
2025-11-04 |
--
|
$228.96 |
--
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
--
|
--
|
| 2025-11-02 |
2025-11-05 |
--
|
$228.52 |
--
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
--
|
--
|
| 2025-11-03 |
2025-11-06 |
--
|
$230.82 |
--
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
--
|
--
|