The Progressive Corporation (PGR)
Model Evaluation — last 30 days for The Progressive Corporation (PGR)
MAPE: 1.87%
MAE: 4.28
Direction hit: 83.3%
P&L in Period:
--
| Trade Date |
Prediction For |
Actual |
Pred |
Δ actual |
Strategy Action |
Shares Held |
Strategy P&L (Day) |
Cum. P&L (Period) |
| 2025-09-29 |
2025-10-06 |
$243.50
|
$243.03 |
0.02
|
SELL
|
0.00 |
$39.88
|
$39.88
|
| 2025-09-30 |
2025-10-07 |
$245.70
|
$245.73 |
1.30
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$39.88
|
| 2025-10-01 |
2025-10-08 |
$240.50
|
$242.90 |
-6.45
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$39.88
|
| 2025-10-02 |
2025-10-09 |
$243.89
|
$238.69 |
-2.57
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$39.88
|
| 2025-10-03 |
2025-10-10 |
$243.06
|
$242.88 |
-0.44
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$39.88
|
| 2025-10-06 |
2025-10-13 |
$242.16
|
$245.89 |
-3.54
|
INITIAL BUY
|
4.16 |
$0.00
|
$39.88
|
| 2025-10-07 |
2025-10-14 |
$240.00
|
$240.87 |
-0.50
|
SELL
|
0.00 |
$14.10
|
$53.98
|
| 2025-10-08 |
2025-10-15 |
$236.28
|
$240.36 |
-7.61
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$53.98
|
| 2025-10-09 |
2025-10-16 |
$240.40
|
$240.41 |
-2.66
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$53.98
|
| 2025-10-10 |
2025-10-17 |
$226.50
|
$239.52 |
-15.66
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$53.98
|
| 2025-10-13 |
2025-10-20 |
$221.74
|
$235.82 |
-18.26
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$53.98
|
| 2025-10-14 |
2025-10-21 |
$225.61
|
$235.84 |
-10.67
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$53.98
|
| 2025-10-15 |
2025-10-22 |
$219.38
|
$221.11 |
-21.02
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$53.98
|
| 2025-10-16 |
2025-10-23 |
$221.60
|
$217.65 |
-4.90
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$53.98
|
| 2025-10-22 |
2025-10-23 |
$220.59
|
$216.63 |
--
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
$-1857.65
|
| 2025-10-23 |
2025-10-26 |
--
|
$218.89 |
--
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
--
|
| 2025-10-24 |
2025-10-27 |
$216.59
|
$219.47 |
--
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
--
|
| 2025-10-27 |
2025-10-30 |
--
|
$217.38 |
--
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
$0.00
|
--
|
| 2025-10-25 |
2025-10-28 |
--
|
$220.69 |
--
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
--
|
--
|
| 2025-10-26 |
2025-10-29 |
--
|
$224.91 |
--
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
--
|
--
|
| 2025-10-28 |
2025-10-31 |
--
|
$225.04 |
--
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
--
|
--
|
| 2025-10-29 |
2025-11-01 |
--
|
$226.06 |
--
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
--
|
--
|
| 2025-10-30 |
2025-11-02 |
--
|
$224.94 |
--
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
--
|
--
|
| 2025-10-31 |
2025-11-03 |
--
|
$227.08 |
--
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
--
|
--
|
| 2025-11-01 |
2025-11-04 |
--
|
$228.96 |
--
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
--
|
--
|
| 2025-11-02 |
2025-11-05 |
--
|
$228.52 |
--
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
--
|
--
|
| 2025-11-03 |
2025-11-06 |
--
|
$230.82 |
--
|
FLAT
|
0.00 |
--
|
--
|